H Heuristics / Projects Lab / Index 2026
Reports, interactive dashboards and analytical experiments on systemic risk, climate, public health, development and the energy transition. Every entry is numbered, citable and openly licensed.
Report · Digital
Asymmetric Hazard Exposure, Capital Cannibalization, and the Collapse of Economic Convergence in the Polycrisis Apocalypse
Poverty and economic inequality are conventional developmental metrics, but in the polycrisis apocalypse, they function as fatal multipliers of biophysical hazard. As established by the IPCC, identical physical shocks—from extreme heat domes to flash deluges—produce radically divergent outcomes across wealth tiers. In vulnerable developing economies, low incomes, unpaved infrastructure, and informal housing strip populations of adaptive shielding, transforming manageable meteorological events into catastrophic mortality, preventable disease, and educational disruption. At the macroeconomic level, recurrent disaster reconstruction cannibalizes gross fixed capital formation, while international bond markets impose a 200–500 basis point borrowing penalty on climate-vulnerable sovereigns. This monograph analyzes the structural mechanics of the climate-development trap across five focused chapters, five empirical exhibits, and master comparative data tables, presenting a capital-backed strategy for universal basic infrastructure and debt de-risking.
Why the polycrisis hits the poor first and hardest: asymmetric hazard vulnerability, human capital attrition, sovereign borrowing penalties, capital cannibalization, and a roadmap to escape the climate-development trap.
Why food insecurity is an existential transmission engine of the global polycrisis: synchronous breadbasket failures, heat stress, soil degradation, fertilizer chokepoints, inflation cascades, and a capital-backed 2040 roadmap to agricultural resilience.
Why freshwater is the transmission fluid of the global polycrisis: groundwater exhaustion, hydrological whiplash, irrigation demand, urban Day Zero crises, contamination, failing infrastructure, water conflict, economic losses and a circular water roadmap to 2040.
How air pollution acts as a force multiplier in the global polycrisis: PM2.5 and ultrafine particle physics, health burdens, ozone smog, household biomass, short-lived climate pollutants, wildfire smoke, crop losses, economic costs and a clean-air roadmap to 2040.
Interactive, data-driven dashboards and experimental visual tools. The first dashboard is in preparation.
Models, datasets, maps and other experimental analytical work. The first project is in preparation.